According to an ECI internal study, commissioned with Fraunhofer-i4e, the following demand for copper in truck due to electrification could be expected:
|Segment||Unit sales in 2025||% alternative||Copper needs|
|Small trucks||2130 k||26-40%||66 ktons|
|Medium trucks||111 k||20%||5 ktons|
|Large trucks||405 k||10%||16 ktons|
|Total||2646 k||87 ktons|
Extrapollating these figures to a hypothetical full conversion to electromobility yields:
|Segment||Copper needs||Mutliplication factor||Maximum copper needs|
|Small trucks||66 ktons||2.5||165 ktons|
|Medium trucks||5 ktons||5.0||25 ktons|
|Large trucks||16 ktons||10.0||160 ktons|
There are 13 million trucks on the EU’s roads (i.e. 5 times the annual market). The maximum copper needs to electrify 100% of the truck fleet is 350 * 5 = 1750 ktons.
In practice, alternatives to electrification of goods transport will also play their part. In addition, the sharing economy may lead to less consumption, more local consumption and hence less goods transport. A realistic scenario will reduce this figure at least by half, to 875 ktons.